As it became clear that enthusiasm for Kamala Harris was waning leading up to the election, bond markets were already going down. That’s important, because the bond market is a predictor of the future.

For contrast, the stock market went up 3% the morning after the election, as Donald Trump promised dramatic tax breaks and lenient environmental regulations for corporations. That explains why so many billionaires supported Trump.

Our bond market, perhaps not as well understood as stocks, is the biggest in the world, and though the Federal Reserve sets a “target” interest rate and regulates short-term interest rates.

The nation’s $28 trillion treasury market sets the final interest rate through an auction.

Here’s what an auction determines: When prices of bonds drop, yields for investors go up. But this also drives up mortgage rates, interest rates on car loans, credit cards and so forth. Foreign countries and investors also trade bonds based on expectations for future borrowing. If our government needs to sell more bonds, lower prices and higher rates of return to investors usually follow.

America is piling up huge annual deficits, and when buyers of our bonds grow concerned about the credit worthiness of the United States, they typically start selling. This creates a knock-on effect of higher deficits, as the nation pays higher interest rates on its massive borrowing.

Never downplay the impact a falling bond markets can have. Bond traders have toppled governments—Great Britain in 2022 is a prime example, reinforcing bond traders nickname “bond vigilantes.”

After Donald Trump was elected, the bond market, which had already declined significantly in anticipation of his win, fell 3% the next morning. That is considered a very bad day for the bond market. Investors began predicting that two of Donald Trump’s election promises would lead to higher prices for consumers.

His first promise was to deport millions of undocumented workers even though our country is at full employment.  Deporting workers will cause a labor shortage and drive up the cost of American made goods, especially the cost of vegetables, meat and housing, industries that rely heavily on manual labor.

His second promise, using presidential power to impose tariffs on goods from other countries, is another way a president can raise costs for consumers. The president-elect has talked up tariffs repeatedly, calling them “beautiful” and promising that other countries will pay for them.

That is not how tariffs work.

If we want foreign goods from China and Mexico, we must pay the going rate. If we want to substitute an American good, we should be sure it’s available and that there is labor to produce it.

During his last presidency, Trump levied tariffs on China. It retaliated by levying tariffs on our farm products, which erased profits for midwestern farmers.

Trump quickly reallocated $12 billion via the U.S. Agriculture Department to support those farmers. That is called a bailout, or welfare.

Moreover, if he raises tariffs across the board on goods from other countries, there will be widespread “revenge- tariffs”—just as happened last time. Unless we borrow even more money in the bond market for various welfare schemes, the tariffs will harm the smallest American companies, while international corporations, with operations overseas, will be less impacted.

Once again farmers will be hurt. We are mostly a nation of consumers, not producers, and 68% of our economy is buying goods. That is why so many suffered during the inflationary spike under Joe Biden, causing the necessary goods in life to become shockingly pricey.

When Donald Trump takes charge next year—and if he fulfills his promises—tariffs and labor shortages are bound to dramatically raise prices and interest rates for American consumers. Once an economy contracts, recession follows.

Somehow, we missed thoroughly debunking Donald Trump’s wrongheaded assumptions about what makes our economy work. Now, we face an uncertain future with a leader whose policies benefit the rich while harming working people.

Dave Marston is the publisher of Writers on the Range, Writersontherange.org. A nonprofit dedicated to lively discussion about the West. He worked in finance in New York City and now lives in Durango, Colorado.

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What I found is that volunteers here are the unsung, unseen heroes doing the real work of humanitarian aid — and who, by the very nature of what they do, often prefer to remain silent. 

We hiked in a remote region of southern Arizona on Bureau of Land Management land, all of us weighted down with backpacks filled with water, and equally weighted with the sorrow of the reality here. More people die in this region than in any other place along the border. The UN agency International Organization for Migration reported that 650 deaths occurred border-wide in 2021, making it the deadliest year they’ve ever recorded. Nothing indicates that 2022 is going to be any better.

We placed gallon jugs of water under a plastic tub held down with rocks, and when I stood up, feeling lighter, I still felt weighted by the contradictions of this place. Sure, I know: Living in contradiction and the ability to hold opposing thoughts and emotions simultaneously is a hallmark of maturity, but still, sometimes the contradictions are so extreme that the brain shorts out. Cases in point:

Nearby, there’s the hyper-ugly Barry M Goldwater Range, used for bombing practice, and the hyper-beauty of the nearby Organ Pipe National Monument. There’s the beauty and silence of the desert, despite the roar of military fighter jets above.

There’s the nearby artsy, colorful town of Ajo, flanked by an enormous open pit copper mine, tailings pile looming alongside. There are the beautiful skeletons of saguaros in the desert, and the very-not-beautiful skeletons of humans.

An area of such diverse life. An area of such death. And perhaps the most surreal contradiction of all: The assault on basic human kindness. How did we get to a place where offering shelter or a ride is a crime? A federal crime, with a prison sentence no less?

A friend told a story in which she came across a young man on foot on a borderlands back road, and could not drive him to a medical facility, despite his request for her to do so, because she knew she could be arrested for transporting an illegal immigrant. She was already on the Border Patrol’s radar. She could give him water and food and a blanket—legal—but could not give him the ride he asked for—illegal.

“You can’t imagine what that’s like,” she said. “To look into another human’s eyes and say, ‘No, I can’t help you.’”

There were tears in her eyes—she had, perhaps, left this man to die, but if she had allowed him in her car, she could have ended up in prison and jeopardized her other work helping migrants, which might result in other lost lives.

My head hurt. My heart hurt. This place felt overwhelming. 

So are the related questions: Was I providing humanitarian aid? Or littering? Should I spend my time doing this small physical act? Or working to elect better politicians? Should I focus on this place so far from my home, or stay local?

Why is this crisis on the border so ignored? Why do North Americans seem willing to support refugees from other countries—which I applaud—yet seem so resistant to helping those closest to us, who are also fleeing serious violence, political persecution, drought and hurricanes?

Then there are the related issues: aquifers drained near the border wall, wildlife migrations interrupted, the Tohono O’odham peoples split apart, with relatives on the U.S. side not easily able to visit relatives in Mexico as they have since time immemorial. Such a clearly bad situation on so many levels.

As I walked back to an old Subaru, my pack much lighter now, my shoulders still felt the weight. I wondered if anyone was watching me—waiting for me to be gone. Waiting for a simple, clear, uncomplicated moment to continue a journey.

Laura Pritchett is a contributor to Writers on the Range, writersontherange.org, a nonprofit dedicated to airing Western issues. Her novel Red Lightning is based on human rights issues at the border. She directs a master’s program in nature writing at Western Colorado University. www.laurapritchett.com

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In my town of Durango, Colorado, labor shortages have deeply affected the entire community. One business owner is Juvenal Corona, originally from Mexico, who co-owns Nayarit, one of Durango’s most popular Mexican restaurants. Since Covid restrictions lifted in the spring, he’s been short-staffed and says he’s never worked harder in his 20 years in the restaurant business.

The main reason he cites: The red-hot real estate market, along with historically high rents that have made it difficult to recruit employees.  

“In my 10 years with Nayarit, we’ve never closed due to a lack of workers,” Corona explained. “But recently we were forced to close each of our locations one day a week.” He and his staff are doing their best; all he asks is that customers “show a little more compassion when it comes to waiting for their orders.” 

Like many restaurants, Nayarit depends on a combination of native-born workers and immigrants to function. In recent months, though, neither group has been showing up.

Besides lack of housing, another factor is low wages in the hospitality sector. Still, Michael French, who heads La Plata County’s Economic Development Alliance, isn’t convinced the shortage is limited to the service industry: “What’s going on is pervasive across all industries and wage categories,” he says. “I believe we’re just now beginning to comprehend the challenges that labor shortages present. I think we’re in a workforce transition.”

Part of that transition — in Durango and elsewhere in the country — involves our nation’s shifting demographics.

The United States is aging. At the beginning of the 20th century, the nation’s typical resident was 23. The average citizen today is 38. And for white Americans, who make up 86% of Durango’s population, the median age is now 58

In addition, fertility rates are in free fall. At 1.6 children per woman, birthrates are now at their lowest levels since 1979. Thanks to the pandemic, birthrates have dropped even further.

Not so long ago, steady flows of young migrants helped the U.S. economy compensate for aging workers and low birth rates. But immigration to this country peaked long ago in 1910, when nearly 15% of the population was foreign-born.

It wasn’t until after World War II that government-sponsored initiatives like the Bracero program started a new wave of immigration. By 2010, immigrants once again made up just over 14% of the country’s population.

However, today, instead of putting migrants to work, the U.S. government works to keep them out. We’ve stepped up enforcement at the border and under the last administration, launched deportation campaigns against undocumented immigrants.

Moreover, in 2020, the number of immigrant and non-immigrant visas issued was down 54% from the previous year. In turn, temporary and permanent worker visas fell by 44%. And as surprising as it might sound, more Mexicans are going home today than are coming to the United States.

I believe the solution to our labor crisis is literally knocking on our southern door. In 2019, at the height of the migrant caravans from Central America, I made several trips across the border to Tijuana to interview migrants. Many of the individuals I talked to were staying at Casa del Migrante, which has been housing migrants for more than three decades.

I met hundreds of willing workers hoping to achieve the American dream of working hard and getting ahead. One man, Carlos, summed up the chaos that so many were fleeing. Originally from Honduras, Carlos was accompanied by his 3-year-old son.

“The gangs killed my brother and sister. And they threatened my son and tortured me,” Carlos said, revealing multiple scars across his chest. “I hope to get asylum and find enough work to buy a little house for my son,” Carlos said. “What more could one want?”

As our nation continues to age, the need for workers like Carlos, who has varied job experience, and others like him, becomes more and more evident. Through a guest-worker program, migrants like Carlos could help fix our country’s demand for additional workers. They would also boost Social Security’s assets and renew America’s commitment to providing refugees a safe haven. The workers are close, waiting to prove themselves.

The question is whether or not we’re willing to open the door.  Ben Waddell is a contributor to Writers on the Range, writersontherange.org, a nonprofit dedicated to spurring lively conversation about the West. He is an associate professor of sociology at Fort Lewis College in Durango, Colorado.

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